Trends

Change in two-party vote share, 2020 to 2024

For each of the 254 counties, the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote in 2020 and 2024, and the change between them. Nearly every county moved toward the Republican column; the largest shifts were along the Rio Grande.

234of 254 counties moved toward the Republican column. “Share change” is the change in the Republican share of the two-party vote, in points. “Margin swing” is the change in the Republican-minus-Democratic margin — twice the share change, and the figure most news coverage cites. Sort by any column; every county links to its full results.

Change in each county’s two-party Republican vote share between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. Positive is a shift toward the Republican column.
D ← → R
Maverick45.2%59.3%+14.1+28.1
Webb38.2%51.1%+12.8+25.7
Starr47.5%58.0%+10.6+21.1
Dimmit37.9%48.4%+10.4+20.9
El Paso32.1%42.3%+10.2+20.4
Hidalgo41.4%51.4%+10.1+20.1
Culberson48.6%58.6%+9.9+19.8
Cameron43.4%52.9%+9.6+19.1
Zapata52.7%61.3%+8.6+17.2
Zavala34.2%42.8%+8.5+17.1
Frio53.8%62.4%+8.5+17.1
Val Verde55.0%63.4%+8.4+16.8
Willacy44.0%51.6%+7.7+15.3
Kenedy66.1%73.7%+7.6+15.1
Reeves61.8%68.6%+6.8+13.7
Uvalde60.3%66.8%+6.6+13.2
Duval48.7%54.9%+6.2+12.4
Morris69.9%75.7%+5.8+11.7
Robertson70.4%76.2%+5.8+11.7
Hudspeth67.7%73.4%+5.7+11.3
Kleberg50.9%56.4%+5.5+11.1
Bee64.6%70.1%+5.5+11.0
Brazos57.4%62.6%+5.3+10.5
Titus72.6%77.6%+5.0+9.9
Jim Hogg41.0%45.9%+4.8+9.7
Dallas33.9%38.7%+4.8+9.6
Camp72.2%77.0%+4.7+9.4
Brooks40.4%45.2%+4.7+9.4
Atascosa67.2%71.8%+4.6+9.3
Fort Bend44.6%49.2%+4.5+9.1
Sutton79.1%83.7%+4.5+9.0
Floyd78.3%82.7%+4.4+8.8
La Salle55.9%60.3%+4.4+8.7
Wharton71.8%76.1%+4.3+8.7
Nueces51.5%55.8%+4.3+8.6
Bexar40.8%45.1%+4.3+8.6
Marion72.2%76.5%+4.3+8.6
Brewster52.1%56.4%+4.2+8.5
Lynn81.2%85.4%+4.2+8.4
Walker66.1%70.1%+4.0+8.1
Terry78.8%82.8%+4.0+7.9
Harris43.3%47.2%+3.9+7.8
Bell54.4%58.2%+3.9+7.7
Parmer81.4%85.2%+3.8+7.7
Calhoun72.4%76.2%+3.8+7.6
Terrell73.7%77.5%+3.8+7.6
Deaf Smith72.3%76.0%+3.8+7.5
Falls68.8%72.5%+3.8+7.5
Sherman90.7%94.5%+3.8+7.5
McLennan61.9%65.6%+3.7+7.5
Cottle82.7%86.4%+3.7+7.4
Jefferson50.8%54.5%+3.7+7.4
Nacogdoches65.9%69.6%+3.7+7.4
Lubbock66.3%70.0%+3.6+7.3
San Patricio64.8%68.4%+3.6+7.2
Collin52.2%55.7%+3.5+7.0
Kinney72.0%75.4%+3.5+7.0
Grimes76.9%80.4%+3.5+7.0
Coryell67.1%70.6%+3.5+6.9
Moore80.4%83.8%+3.4+6.8
Cherokee78.2%81.6%+3.4+6.8
Hale75.9%79.3%+3.4+6.8
Gonzales74.3%77.6%+3.3+6.6
Refugio66.6%69.9%+3.3+6.6
Crosby72.6%75.8%+3.3+6.5
Colorado75.5%78.8%+3.2+6.5
Limestone75.4%78.7%+3.2+6.5
Cass79.8%82.9%+3.1+6.3
Navarro73.0%76.1%+3.1+6.2
Madison79.3%82.3%+3.0+6.1
Shelby79.4%82.4%+3.0+6.0
Matagorda72.5%75.5%+3.0+6.0
Bailey77.8%80.8%+3.0+5.9
Travis27.0%30.0%+3.0+5.9
Karnes76.3%79.2%+2.9+5.8
Angelina73.3%76.2%+2.9+5.8
Bowie71.6%74.5%+2.9+5.8
Jim Wells54.9%57.8%+2.9+5.8
San Augustine75.4%78.3%+2.9+5.7
Trinity80.8%83.7%+2.9+5.7
Concho84.3%87.2%+2.9+5.7
Menard80.7%83.5%+2.8+5.7
Newton80.6%83.4%+2.8+5.5
Smith70.0%72.8%+2.8+5.5
Potter69.7%72.5%+2.8+5.5
Crane83.8%86.5%+2.7+5.5
Pecos69.9%72.7%+2.7+5.5
Knox81.7%84.4%+2.7+5.4
Tarrant49.9%52.6%+2.7+5.4
McMullen89.7%92.4%+2.7+5.4
Caldwell54.6%57.3%+2.7+5.3
Milam76.2%78.8%+2.7+5.3
Hays44.5%47.1%+2.7+5.3
Guadalupe62.3%64.9%+2.6+5.3
Burleson79.0%81.7%+2.6+5.2
Swisher79.4%82.0%+2.6+5.2
Gregg68.7%71.3%+2.6+5.2
Denton54.1%56.7%+2.6+5.1
Wilson74.4%77.0%+2.6+5.2
Edwards84.2%86.7%+2.6+5.1
Blanco74.0%76.6%+2.5+5.1
Red River78.4%80.9%+2.5+5.1
Houston75.3%77.8%+2.5+5.0
Jasper80.9%83.4%+2.5+5.0
Goliad77.9%80.3%+2.5+4.9
Ector74.2%76.6%+2.4+4.9
Galveston61.5%63.9%+2.4+4.8
Harrison73.1%75.5%+2.4+4.8
Ward80.9%83.2%+2.3+4.6
Dawson78.5%80.8%+2.3+4.6
Bastrop57.0%59.3%+2.3+4.6
Freestone81.0%83.3%+2.3+4.6
Washington75.3%77.5%+2.3+4.6
Winkler83.0%85.3%+2.3+4.6
Lee78.1%80.4%+2.3+4.5
DeWitt81.5%83.7%+2.2+4.4
Victoria69.2%71.4%+2.2+4.4
Polk77.5%79.7%+2.1+4.3
Taylor73.0%75.1%+2.1+4.2
Childress86.2%88.3%+2.1+4.2
Aransas76.0%78.1%+2.1+4.2
Grayson75.3%77.3%+2.1+4.2
Jackson83.5%85.6%+2.1+4.2
Haskell83.9%86.0%+2.1+4.1
Howard79.6%81.6%+2.1+4.1
Austin79.5%81.6%+2.1+4.1
Williamson49.3%51.2%+2.0+3.9
Wilbarger78.7%80.6%+1.9+3.8
Hardeman84.7%86.6%+1.9+3.8
Fannin82.1%84.0%+1.9+3.7
Jones85.0%86.9%+1.9+3.7
Anderson79.3%81.1%+1.8+3.7
Dallam87.6%89.4%+1.8+3.7
Nolan78.0%79.9%+1.8+3.6
Yoakum83.8%85.6%+1.8+3.6
Hockley81.5%83.3%+1.8+3.6
Hopkins80.7%82.5%+1.8+3.6
Erath82.4%84.2%+1.8+3.6
Midland78.7%80.5%+1.8+3.6
Chambers81.3%83.1%+1.8+3.6
Donley87.9%89.7%+1.8+3.6
Rusk78.1%79.9%+1.8+3.5
Castro77.5%79.2%+1.8+3.5
Hill80.7%82.4%+1.8+3.5
Medina69.8%71.5%+1.8+3.5
Presidio33.0%34.7%+1.7+3.4
Tom Green72.5%74.3%+1.7+3.4
Fayette79.3%81.0%+1.7+3.4
Lamar79.0%80.7%+1.7+3.4
Motley92.9%94.6%+1.7+3.3
Sabine87.7%89.4%+1.7+3.3
Collingsworth87.1%88.8%+1.6+3.3
Lamb80.7%82.3%+1.6+3.2
Kimble87.5%89.1%+1.6+3.1
San Jacinto81.3%82.9%+1.6+3.1
Henderson80.4%81.9%+1.6+3.1
Irion86.4%87.9%+1.5+3.0
Rockwall69.1%70.7%+1.5+3.1
Tyler85.4%86.9%+1.5+3.0
Martin86.6%88.1%+1.5+3.0
Runnels87.3%88.8%+1.4+2.9
Somervell84.2%85.7%+1.4+2.9
Orange82.1%83.5%+1.4+2.9
Palo Pinto82.4%83.8%+1.4+2.9
Fisher80.4%81.8%+1.4+2.8
Hall85.5%86.9%+1.4+2.8
McCulloch85.6%87.0%+1.4+2.8
Mason81.3%82.7%+1.4+2.8
Panola81.9%83.3%+1.4+2.7
Hunt76.6%78.0%+1.4+2.7
Mitchell84.5%85.9%+1.4+2.7
Comanche85.9%87.2%+1.3+2.7
Upton87.4%88.7%+1.3+2.7
Comal71.7%73.0%+1.3+2.7
Hartley90.5%91.9%+1.3+2.6
Lavaca86.9%88.2%+1.3+2.7
Wichita70.9%72.2%+1.3+2.6
Live Oak83.7%85.0%+1.3+2.6
Gaines90.3%91.6%+1.3+2.5
Andrews85.3%86.6%+1.3+2.5
Bosque82.7%84.0%+1.2+2.5
Van Zandt86.4%87.6%+1.2+2.5
Burnet76.9%78.1%+1.2+2.4
Kerr76.2%77.4%+1.2+2.4
Cochran82.0%83.2%+1.2+2.4
Scurry85.9%87.1%+1.2+2.4
Kendall76.9%78.1%+1.2+2.3
Foard81.8%83.0%+1.2+2.3
Sterling92.0%93.1%+1.2+2.3
Bandera80.1%81.2%+1.1+2.3
Briscoe89.1%90.2%+1.1+2.3
Upshur84.6%85.7%+1.1+2.3
Throckmorton90.8%91.8%+1.1+2.2
Young87.3%88.3%+1.1+2.1
Lampasas79.0%80.1%+1.0+2.0
Leon87.5%88.5%+1.0+2.0
Hamilton84.9%85.9%+1.0+1.9
Gillespie79.8%80.7%+0.9+1.9
Eastland88.0%89.0%+0.9+1.8
Hansford91.8%92.7%+0.9+1.8
Clay89.2%90.0%+0.9+1.7
Schleicher81.7%82.5%+0.8+1.7
Hood82.4%83.3%+0.8+1.6
Parker82.7%83.5%+0.8+1.6
Franklin83.8%84.6%+0.8+1.6
Liberty80.1%80.9%+0.8+1.6
San Saba88.9%89.7%+0.8+1.6
Wise84.5%85.3%+0.8+1.6
Hardin87.3%88.1%+0.8+1.6
Cooke82.9%83.7%+0.8+1.5
Brazoria59.2%60.0%+0.7+1.5
Montgomery72.2%73.0%+0.7+1.5
Delta84.3%85.0%+0.7+1.4
Ochiltree90.3%91.0%+0.7+1.4
Rains86.0%86.7%+0.7+1.4
Coleman89.0%89.7%+0.7+1.4
Garza86.0%86.6%+0.6+1.3
Wood84.4%85.1%+0.6+1.3
Randall79.9%80.5%+0.6+1.2
King95.0%95.6%+0.6+1.2
Brown86.7%87.3%+0.6+1.2
Oldham91.9%92.4%+0.5+1.0
Carson90.3%90.8%+0.5+0.9
Reagan84.6%85.0%+0.5+0.9
Stonewall84.1%84.6%+0.5+0.9
Montague88.7%89.0%+0.3+0.7
Llano80.3%80.7%+0.3+0.6
Hemphill87.8%88.1%+0.3+0.6
Stephens89.5%89.8%+0.3+0.5
Glasscock94.0%94.3%+0.3+0.5
Coke89.9%90.1%+0.2+0.3
Jack91.2%91.3%+0.1+0.3
Real83.7%83.8%+0.1+0.1
Hutchinson88.8%88.8%+0.0+0.0
Lipscomb90.2%90.1%0.10.1
Callahan89.1%89.0%0.10.2
Jeff Davis61.0%60.8%0.20.3
Armstrong93.2%93.0%0.20.4
Baylor89.1%88.9%0.20.4
Wheeler92.8%92.5%0.30.5
Borden96.1%95.9%0.30.5
Gray89.2%88.8%0.40.8
Roberts96.9%96.5%0.40.8
Mills89.1%88.6%0.50.9
Shackelford92.0%91.5%0.51.0
Archer90.6%89.8%0.81.6
Waller63.5%62.6%0.91.7
Johnson76.8%75.9%0.91.8
Crockett78.0%77.1%0.91.8
Kent89.7%88.6%1.12.2
Dickens86.8%85.3%1.53.0
Ellis67.3%65.7%1.63.2
Kaufman67.2%64.1%3.16.2
Loving93.8%89.6%4.28.3

Ten largest shifts toward the Republican column

County20202024Change
Maverick45.2%59.3%+14.1
Webb38.2%51.1%+12.8
Starr47.5%58.0%+10.6
Dimmit37.9%48.4%+10.4
El Paso32.1%42.3%+10.2
Hidalgo41.4%51.4%+10.1
Culberson48.6%58.6%+9.9
Cameron43.4%52.9%+9.6
Zapata52.7%61.3%+8.6
Zavala34.2%42.8%+8.5

Ten largest shifts toward the Democratic column

County20202024Change
Loving93.8%89.6%−4.2
Kaufman67.2%64.1%−3.1
Ellis67.3%65.7%−1.6
Dickens86.8%85.3%−1.5
Kent89.7%88.6%−1.1
Crockett78.0%77.1%−0.9
Johnson76.8%75.9%−0.9
Waller63.5%62.6%−0.9
Archer90.6%89.8%−0.8
Shackelford92.0%91.5%−0.5

Every one of these ten moves is smaller than four points, and most are in counties that cast only a few hundred to a few thousand presidential votes — Loving County’s 4.2-point figure is a swing of three votes. Only Kaufman and Ellis, both Dallas–Fort Worth exurbs, moved measurably toward the Democratic column. This is not a trend; it is the small end of a distribution that otherwise runs one way.

County-level presidential results in this dataset begin with the 2020 election, so no longer trend is available. For the statewide picture back to 1848, see the presidential margin page.

Method & source

What this shows: Two-party Republican share = Republican votes ÷ (Republican + Democratic votes), by county, for the 2020 and 2024 presidential general elections. The share change is the 2024 figure minus the 2020 figure, in percentage points; the margin swing is the change in the Republican-minus-Democratic margin (exactly twice the share change). Third-party and write-in votes are excluded from the denominator.

Source: Texas Secretary of State certified county canvass reports for the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.

Covers: A single comparison: the 2020 and 2024 presidential general elections. No county-level presidential data exists in this dataset before 2020.