Change in two-party vote share, 2020 to 2024
For each of the 254 counties, the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote in 2020 and 2024, and the change between them. Nearly every county moved toward the Republican column; the largest shifts were along the Rio Grande.
234of 254 counties moved toward the Republican column. “Share change” is the change in the Republican share of the two-party vote, in points. “Margin swing” is the change in the Republican-minus-Democratic margin — twice the share change, and the figure most news coverage cites. Sort by any column; every county links to its full results.
| D ← → R | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick | 45.2% | 59.3% | +14.1 | +28.1 | |
| Webb | 38.2% | 51.1% | +12.8 | +25.7 | |
| Starr | 47.5% | 58.0% | +10.6 | +21.1 | |
| Dimmit | 37.9% | 48.4% | +10.4 | +20.9 | |
| El Paso | 32.1% | 42.3% | +10.2 | +20.4 | |
| Hidalgo | 41.4% | 51.4% | +10.1 | +20.1 | |
| Culberson | 48.6% | 58.6% | +9.9 | +19.8 | |
| Cameron | 43.4% | 52.9% | +9.6 | +19.1 | |
| Zapata | 52.7% | 61.3% | +8.6 | +17.2 | |
| Zavala | 34.2% | 42.8% | +8.5 | +17.1 | |
| Frio | 53.8% | 62.4% | +8.5 | +17.1 | |
| Val Verde | 55.0% | 63.4% | +8.4 | +16.8 | |
| Willacy | 44.0% | 51.6% | +7.7 | +15.3 | |
| Kenedy | 66.1% | 73.7% | +7.6 | +15.1 | |
| Reeves | 61.8% | 68.6% | +6.8 | +13.7 | |
| Uvalde | 60.3% | 66.8% | +6.6 | +13.2 | |
| Duval | 48.7% | 54.9% | +6.2 | +12.4 | |
| Morris | 69.9% | 75.7% | +5.8 | +11.7 | |
| Robertson | 70.4% | 76.2% | +5.8 | +11.7 | |
| Hudspeth | 67.7% | 73.4% | +5.7 | +11.3 | |
| Kleberg | 50.9% | 56.4% | +5.5 | +11.1 | |
| Bee | 64.6% | 70.1% | +5.5 | +11.0 | |
| Brazos | 57.4% | 62.6% | +5.3 | +10.5 | |
| Titus | 72.6% | 77.6% | +5.0 | +9.9 | |
| Jim Hogg | 41.0% | 45.9% | +4.8 | +9.7 | |
| Dallas | 33.9% | 38.7% | +4.8 | +9.6 | |
| Camp | 72.2% | 77.0% | +4.7 | +9.4 | |
| Brooks | 40.4% | 45.2% | +4.7 | +9.4 | |
| Atascosa | 67.2% | 71.8% | +4.6 | +9.3 | |
| Fort Bend | 44.6% | 49.2% | +4.5 | +9.1 | |
| Sutton | 79.1% | 83.7% | +4.5 | +9.0 | |
| Floyd | 78.3% | 82.7% | +4.4 | +8.8 | |
| La Salle | 55.9% | 60.3% | +4.4 | +8.7 | |
| Wharton | 71.8% | 76.1% | +4.3 | +8.7 | |
| Nueces | 51.5% | 55.8% | +4.3 | +8.6 | |
| Bexar | 40.8% | 45.1% | +4.3 | +8.6 | |
| Marion | 72.2% | 76.5% | +4.3 | +8.6 | |
| Brewster | 52.1% | 56.4% | +4.2 | +8.5 | |
| Lynn | 81.2% | 85.4% | +4.2 | +8.4 | |
| Walker | 66.1% | 70.1% | +4.0 | +8.1 | |
| Terry | 78.8% | 82.8% | +4.0 | +7.9 | |
| Harris | 43.3% | 47.2% | +3.9 | +7.8 | |
| Bell | 54.4% | 58.2% | +3.9 | +7.7 | |
| Parmer | 81.4% | 85.2% | +3.8 | +7.7 | |
| Calhoun | 72.4% | 76.2% | +3.8 | +7.6 | |
| Terrell | 73.7% | 77.5% | +3.8 | +7.6 | |
| Deaf Smith | 72.3% | 76.0% | +3.8 | +7.5 | |
| Falls | 68.8% | 72.5% | +3.8 | +7.5 | |
| Sherman | 90.7% | 94.5% | +3.8 | +7.5 | |
| McLennan | 61.9% | 65.6% | +3.7 | +7.5 | |
| Cottle | 82.7% | 86.4% | +3.7 | +7.4 | |
| Jefferson | 50.8% | 54.5% | +3.7 | +7.4 | |
| Nacogdoches | 65.9% | 69.6% | +3.7 | +7.4 | |
| Lubbock | 66.3% | 70.0% | +3.6 | +7.3 | |
| San Patricio | 64.8% | 68.4% | +3.6 | +7.2 | |
| Collin | 52.2% | 55.7% | +3.5 | +7.0 | |
| Kinney | 72.0% | 75.4% | +3.5 | +7.0 | |
| Grimes | 76.9% | 80.4% | +3.5 | +7.0 | |
| Coryell | 67.1% | 70.6% | +3.5 | +6.9 | |
| Moore | 80.4% | 83.8% | +3.4 | +6.8 | |
| Cherokee | 78.2% | 81.6% | +3.4 | +6.8 | |
| Hale | 75.9% | 79.3% | +3.4 | +6.8 | |
| Gonzales | 74.3% | 77.6% | +3.3 | +6.6 | |
| Refugio | 66.6% | 69.9% | +3.3 | +6.6 | |
| Crosby | 72.6% | 75.8% | +3.3 | +6.5 | |
| Colorado | 75.5% | 78.8% | +3.2 | +6.5 | |
| Limestone | 75.4% | 78.7% | +3.2 | +6.5 | |
| Cass | 79.8% | 82.9% | +3.1 | +6.3 | |
| Navarro | 73.0% | 76.1% | +3.1 | +6.2 | |
| Madison | 79.3% | 82.3% | +3.0 | +6.1 | |
| Shelby | 79.4% | 82.4% | +3.0 | +6.0 | |
| Matagorda | 72.5% | 75.5% | +3.0 | +6.0 | |
| Bailey | 77.8% | 80.8% | +3.0 | +5.9 | |
| Travis | 27.0% | 30.0% | +3.0 | +5.9 | |
| Karnes | 76.3% | 79.2% | +2.9 | +5.8 | |
| Angelina | 73.3% | 76.2% | +2.9 | +5.8 | |
| Bowie | 71.6% | 74.5% | +2.9 | +5.8 | |
| Jim Wells | 54.9% | 57.8% | +2.9 | +5.8 | |
| San Augustine | 75.4% | 78.3% | +2.9 | +5.7 | |
| Trinity | 80.8% | 83.7% | +2.9 | +5.7 | |
| Concho | 84.3% | 87.2% | +2.9 | +5.7 | |
| Menard | 80.7% | 83.5% | +2.8 | +5.7 | |
| Newton | 80.6% | 83.4% | +2.8 | +5.5 | |
| Smith | 70.0% | 72.8% | +2.8 | +5.5 | |
| Potter | 69.7% | 72.5% | +2.8 | +5.5 | |
| Crane | 83.8% | 86.5% | +2.7 | +5.5 | |
| Pecos | 69.9% | 72.7% | +2.7 | +5.5 | |
| Knox | 81.7% | 84.4% | +2.7 | +5.4 | |
| Tarrant | 49.9% | 52.6% | +2.7 | +5.4 | |
| McMullen | 89.7% | 92.4% | +2.7 | +5.4 | |
| Caldwell | 54.6% | 57.3% | +2.7 | +5.3 | |
| Milam | 76.2% | 78.8% | +2.7 | +5.3 | |
| Hays | 44.5% | 47.1% | +2.7 | +5.3 | |
| Guadalupe | 62.3% | 64.9% | +2.6 | +5.3 | |
| Burleson | 79.0% | 81.7% | +2.6 | +5.2 | |
| Swisher | 79.4% | 82.0% | +2.6 | +5.2 | |
| Gregg | 68.7% | 71.3% | +2.6 | +5.2 | |
| Denton | 54.1% | 56.7% | +2.6 | +5.1 | |
| Wilson | 74.4% | 77.0% | +2.6 | +5.2 | |
| Edwards | 84.2% | 86.7% | +2.6 | +5.1 | |
| Blanco | 74.0% | 76.6% | +2.5 | +5.1 | |
| Red River | 78.4% | 80.9% | +2.5 | +5.1 | |
| Houston | 75.3% | 77.8% | +2.5 | +5.0 | |
| Jasper | 80.9% | 83.4% | +2.5 | +5.0 | |
| Goliad | 77.9% | 80.3% | +2.5 | +4.9 | |
| Ector | 74.2% | 76.6% | +2.4 | +4.9 | |
| Galveston | 61.5% | 63.9% | +2.4 | +4.8 | |
| Harrison | 73.1% | 75.5% | +2.4 | +4.8 | |
| Ward | 80.9% | 83.2% | +2.3 | +4.6 | |
| Dawson | 78.5% | 80.8% | +2.3 | +4.6 | |
| Bastrop | 57.0% | 59.3% | +2.3 | +4.6 | |
| Freestone | 81.0% | 83.3% | +2.3 | +4.6 | |
| Washington | 75.3% | 77.5% | +2.3 | +4.6 | |
| Winkler | 83.0% | 85.3% | +2.3 | +4.6 | |
| Lee | 78.1% | 80.4% | +2.3 | +4.5 | |
| DeWitt | 81.5% | 83.7% | +2.2 | +4.4 | |
| Victoria | 69.2% | 71.4% | +2.2 | +4.4 | |
| Polk | 77.5% | 79.7% | +2.1 | +4.3 | |
| Taylor | 73.0% | 75.1% | +2.1 | +4.2 | |
| Childress | 86.2% | 88.3% | +2.1 | +4.2 | |
| Aransas | 76.0% | 78.1% | +2.1 | +4.2 | |
| Grayson | 75.3% | 77.3% | +2.1 | +4.2 | |
| Jackson | 83.5% | 85.6% | +2.1 | +4.2 | |
| Haskell | 83.9% | 86.0% | +2.1 | +4.1 | |
| Howard | 79.6% | 81.6% | +2.1 | +4.1 | |
| Austin | 79.5% | 81.6% | +2.1 | +4.1 | |
| Williamson | 49.3% | 51.2% | +2.0 | +3.9 | |
| Wilbarger | 78.7% | 80.6% | +1.9 | +3.8 | |
| Hardeman | 84.7% | 86.6% | +1.9 | +3.8 | |
| Fannin | 82.1% | 84.0% | +1.9 | +3.7 | |
| Jones | 85.0% | 86.9% | +1.9 | +3.7 | |
| Anderson | 79.3% | 81.1% | +1.8 | +3.7 | |
| Dallam | 87.6% | 89.4% | +1.8 | +3.7 | |
| Nolan | 78.0% | 79.9% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Yoakum | 83.8% | 85.6% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Hockley | 81.5% | 83.3% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Hopkins | 80.7% | 82.5% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Erath | 82.4% | 84.2% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Midland | 78.7% | 80.5% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Chambers | 81.3% | 83.1% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Donley | 87.9% | 89.7% | +1.8 | +3.6 | |
| Rusk | 78.1% | 79.9% | +1.8 | +3.5 | |
| Castro | 77.5% | 79.2% | +1.8 | +3.5 | |
| Hill | 80.7% | 82.4% | +1.8 | +3.5 | |
| Medina | 69.8% | 71.5% | +1.8 | +3.5 | |
| Presidio | 33.0% | 34.7% | +1.7 | +3.4 | |
| Tom Green | 72.5% | 74.3% | +1.7 | +3.4 | |
| Fayette | 79.3% | 81.0% | +1.7 | +3.4 | |
| Lamar | 79.0% | 80.7% | +1.7 | +3.4 | |
| Motley | 92.9% | 94.6% | +1.7 | +3.3 | |
| Sabine | 87.7% | 89.4% | +1.7 | +3.3 | |
| Collingsworth | 87.1% | 88.8% | +1.6 | +3.3 | |
| Lamb | 80.7% | 82.3% | +1.6 | +3.2 | |
| Kimble | 87.5% | 89.1% | +1.6 | +3.1 | |
| San Jacinto | 81.3% | 82.9% | +1.6 | +3.1 | |
| Henderson | 80.4% | 81.9% | +1.6 | +3.1 | |
| Irion | 86.4% | 87.9% | +1.5 | +3.0 | |
| Rockwall | 69.1% | 70.7% | +1.5 | +3.1 | |
| Tyler | 85.4% | 86.9% | +1.5 | +3.0 | |
| Martin | 86.6% | 88.1% | +1.5 | +3.0 | |
| Runnels | 87.3% | 88.8% | +1.4 | +2.9 | |
| Somervell | 84.2% | 85.7% | +1.4 | +2.9 | |
| Orange | 82.1% | 83.5% | +1.4 | +2.9 | |
| Palo Pinto | 82.4% | 83.8% | +1.4 | +2.9 | |
| Fisher | 80.4% | 81.8% | +1.4 | +2.8 | |
| Hall | 85.5% | 86.9% | +1.4 | +2.8 | |
| McCulloch | 85.6% | 87.0% | +1.4 | +2.8 | |
| Mason | 81.3% | 82.7% | +1.4 | +2.8 | |
| Panola | 81.9% | 83.3% | +1.4 | +2.7 | |
| Hunt | 76.6% | 78.0% | +1.4 | +2.7 | |
| Mitchell | 84.5% | 85.9% | +1.4 | +2.7 | |
| Comanche | 85.9% | 87.2% | +1.3 | +2.7 | |
| Upton | 87.4% | 88.7% | +1.3 | +2.7 | |
| Comal | 71.7% | 73.0% | +1.3 | +2.7 | |
| Hartley | 90.5% | 91.9% | +1.3 | +2.6 | |
| Lavaca | 86.9% | 88.2% | +1.3 | +2.7 | |
| Wichita | 70.9% | 72.2% | +1.3 | +2.6 | |
| Live Oak | 83.7% | 85.0% | +1.3 | +2.6 | |
| Gaines | 90.3% | 91.6% | +1.3 | +2.5 | |
| Andrews | 85.3% | 86.6% | +1.3 | +2.5 | |
| Bosque | 82.7% | 84.0% | +1.2 | +2.5 | |
| Van Zandt | 86.4% | 87.6% | +1.2 | +2.5 | |
| Burnet | 76.9% | 78.1% | +1.2 | +2.4 | |
| Kerr | 76.2% | 77.4% | +1.2 | +2.4 | |
| Cochran | 82.0% | 83.2% | +1.2 | +2.4 | |
| Scurry | 85.9% | 87.1% | +1.2 | +2.4 | |
| Kendall | 76.9% | 78.1% | +1.2 | +2.3 | |
| Foard | 81.8% | 83.0% | +1.2 | +2.3 | |
| Sterling | 92.0% | 93.1% | +1.2 | +2.3 | |
| Bandera | 80.1% | 81.2% | +1.1 | +2.3 | |
| Briscoe | 89.1% | 90.2% | +1.1 | +2.3 | |
| Upshur | 84.6% | 85.7% | +1.1 | +2.3 | |
| Throckmorton | 90.8% | 91.8% | +1.1 | +2.2 | |
| Young | 87.3% | 88.3% | +1.1 | +2.1 | |
| Lampasas | 79.0% | 80.1% | +1.0 | +2.0 | |
| Leon | 87.5% | 88.5% | +1.0 | +2.0 | |
| Hamilton | 84.9% | 85.9% | +1.0 | +1.9 | |
| Gillespie | 79.8% | 80.7% | +0.9 | +1.9 | |
| Eastland | 88.0% | 89.0% | +0.9 | +1.8 | |
| Hansford | 91.8% | 92.7% | +0.9 | +1.8 | |
| Clay | 89.2% | 90.0% | +0.9 | +1.7 | |
| Schleicher | 81.7% | 82.5% | +0.8 | +1.7 | |
| Hood | 82.4% | 83.3% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| Parker | 82.7% | 83.5% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| Franklin | 83.8% | 84.6% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| Liberty | 80.1% | 80.9% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| San Saba | 88.9% | 89.7% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| Wise | 84.5% | 85.3% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| Hardin | 87.3% | 88.1% | +0.8 | +1.6 | |
| Cooke | 82.9% | 83.7% | +0.8 | +1.5 | |
| Brazoria | 59.2% | 60.0% | +0.7 | +1.5 | |
| Montgomery | 72.2% | 73.0% | +0.7 | +1.5 | |
| Delta | 84.3% | 85.0% | +0.7 | +1.4 | |
| Ochiltree | 90.3% | 91.0% | +0.7 | +1.4 | |
| Rains | 86.0% | 86.7% | +0.7 | +1.4 | |
| Coleman | 89.0% | 89.7% | +0.7 | +1.4 | |
| Garza | 86.0% | 86.6% | +0.6 | +1.3 | |
| Wood | 84.4% | 85.1% | +0.6 | +1.3 | |
| Randall | 79.9% | 80.5% | +0.6 | +1.2 | |
| King | 95.0% | 95.6% | +0.6 | +1.2 | |
| Brown | 86.7% | 87.3% | +0.6 | +1.2 | |
| Oldham | 91.9% | 92.4% | +0.5 | +1.0 | |
| Carson | 90.3% | 90.8% | +0.5 | +0.9 | |
| Reagan | 84.6% | 85.0% | +0.5 | +0.9 | |
| Stonewall | 84.1% | 84.6% | +0.5 | +0.9 | |
| Montague | 88.7% | 89.0% | +0.3 | +0.7 | |
| Llano | 80.3% | 80.7% | +0.3 | +0.6 | |
| Hemphill | 87.8% | 88.1% | +0.3 | +0.6 | |
| Stephens | 89.5% | 89.8% | +0.3 | +0.5 | |
| Glasscock | 94.0% | 94.3% | +0.3 | +0.5 | |
| Coke | 89.9% | 90.1% | +0.2 | +0.3 | |
| Jack | 91.2% | 91.3% | +0.1 | +0.3 | |
| Real | 83.7% | 83.8% | +0.1 | +0.1 | |
| Hutchinson | 88.8% | 88.8% | +0.0 | +0.0 | |
| Lipscomb | 90.2% | 90.1% | −0.1 | −0.1 | |
| Callahan | 89.1% | 89.0% | −0.1 | −0.2 | |
| Jeff Davis | 61.0% | 60.8% | −0.2 | −0.3 | |
| Armstrong | 93.2% | 93.0% | −0.2 | −0.4 | |
| Baylor | 89.1% | 88.9% | −0.2 | −0.4 | |
| Wheeler | 92.8% | 92.5% | −0.3 | −0.5 | |
| Borden | 96.1% | 95.9% | −0.3 | −0.5 | |
| Gray | 89.2% | 88.8% | −0.4 | −0.8 | |
| Roberts | 96.9% | 96.5% | −0.4 | −0.8 | |
| Mills | 89.1% | 88.6% | −0.5 | −0.9 | |
| Shackelford | 92.0% | 91.5% | −0.5 | −1.0 | |
| Archer | 90.6% | 89.8% | −0.8 | −1.6 | |
| Waller | 63.5% | 62.6% | −0.9 | −1.7 | |
| Johnson | 76.8% | 75.9% | −0.9 | −1.8 | |
| Crockett | 78.0% | 77.1% | −0.9 | −1.8 | |
| Kent | 89.7% | 88.6% | −1.1 | −2.2 | |
| Dickens | 86.8% | 85.3% | −1.5 | −3.0 | |
| Ellis | 67.3% | 65.7% | −1.6 | −3.2 | |
| Kaufman | 67.2% | 64.1% | −3.1 | −6.2 | |
| Loving | 93.8% | 89.6% | −4.2 | −8.3 |
Ten largest shifts toward the Republican column
| County | 2020 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick | 45.2% | 59.3% | +14.1 |
| Webb | 38.2% | 51.1% | +12.8 |
| Starr | 47.5% | 58.0% | +10.6 |
| Dimmit | 37.9% | 48.4% | +10.4 |
| El Paso | 32.1% | 42.3% | +10.2 |
| Hidalgo | 41.4% | 51.4% | +10.1 |
| Culberson | 48.6% | 58.6% | +9.9 |
| Cameron | 43.4% | 52.9% | +9.6 |
| Zapata | 52.7% | 61.3% | +8.6 |
| Zavala | 34.2% | 42.8% | +8.5 |
Ten largest shifts toward the Democratic column
| County | 2020 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loving | 93.8% | 89.6% | −4.2 |
| Kaufman | 67.2% | 64.1% | −3.1 |
| Ellis | 67.3% | 65.7% | −1.6 |
| Dickens | 86.8% | 85.3% | −1.5 |
| Kent | 89.7% | 88.6% | −1.1 |
| Crockett | 78.0% | 77.1% | −0.9 |
| Johnson | 76.8% | 75.9% | −0.9 |
| Waller | 63.5% | 62.6% | −0.9 |
| Archer | 90.6% | 89.8% | −0.8 |
| Shackelford | 92.0% | 91.5% | −0.5 |
Every one of these ten moves is smaller than four points, and most are in counties that cast only a few hundred to a few thousand presidential votes — Loving County’s 4.2-point figure is a swing of three votes. Only Kaufman and Ellis, both Dallas–Fort Worth exurbs, moved measurably toward the Democratic column. This is not a trend; it is the small end of a distribution that otherwise runs one way.
County-level presidential results in this dataset begin with the 2020 election, so no longer trend is available. For the statewide picture back to 1848, see the presidential margin page.
Method & source
What this shows: Two-party Republican share = Republican votes ÷ (Republican + Democratic votes), by county, for the 2020 and 2024 presidential general elections. The share change is the 2024 figure minus the 2020 figure, in percentage points; the margin swing is the change in the Republican-minus-Democratic margin (exactly twice the share change). Third-party and write-in votes are excluded from the denominator.
Source: Texas Secretary of State certified county canvass reports for the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.
Covers: A single comparison: the 2020 and 2024 presidential general elections. No county-level presidential data exists in this dataset before 2020.